When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and other build windmills.
— Chinese Proverb
I caught a small cold, and every few minutes I sneeze and lose my train of thought.
But we carry on!
Let’s jump into it, got a few things to cover.
On last week’s trade update
I haven’t sent out a trade update in some time, and this seemed like a good time to come out of hibernation.
It worked out pretty well.
ETH was ~$210 when I sent the email and ETH hit my target range at ~$281.
I sold some ETH at my target and bought back in with a better BTC ratio.
As I said in the update, I’m still bullish on ETH/BTC ratio.
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Alright, enough shilling myself, moving on.
Cboe ETF delayed (again)
The SEC has again postponed its decision on VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF and will be seeking public comments.
Not really a big deal as I don’t think it will have much of an impact on price since the SEC has already rejected atleast 10 similar proposals.
JP Morgan & intrinsic value
JP Morgan strategists made reference to bitcoin’s intrinsic value (mostly based on cost of production, mining), which is interesting since less than two years ago the CEO was calling bitcoin a scam.
They made an argument that speculation is driving the cost of bitcoin beyond its economic stability into a bubble…
And that’s all cool, but it’s more interesting how opinions are being changed before our eyes.
Charlie Bilello@charliebilelloAt 0%, Bitcoin has a higher yield than government bonds in 18 countries whose central banks are attempting to debase their currencies and inflate asset prices. In unrelated news, Bitcoin is up 112% year-to-date. $BTC https://t.co/p2NhtOkZ5y
I expect to see more of this rhetoric in the future.
The general consensus seems to be that we’re due for a pullback.
I am not completely sold on this yet.
I think we’ll have a pullback (or arguably, are in the middle of finishing a pullback) and will continue to move sideways and up.
Below are the 3 zones I’m paying most attention too (labelled A, B, and C).
Zone A = local trend line
Zone B = local high
Zone C = trend line + fib line
Bitcoin (Moving Averages)
We had the daily 50 SMA cross the weekly 50 SMA.
Shorts vs. Longs
All this bearishness isn’t evident in the long/short ratio.
3 Day TD
Bitcoin (Support/Resistance Levels)
Weekly Pivot Points
Monthly Pivot Points
April 1 - present
Bitcoin (Macro Overview)
We’re about ~368 days away from the next halving event.
What do you folks think?
Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.
That’s all for now.
See you later space Cowboy