Weekly Bulletin (Mar 24, 2019)

CoinSheet #249

One ought, every day at least, to hear a little song, read a good poem, see a fine picture and, if it were possible, speak a few reasonable words.

— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832)


Weekly Bulletin

Hello folks,

Hope you’ve all had a great week (if you didn’t, don’t worry, spring is upon us.)

Let’s jump into it.


Bitcoin Jack

Jack Dorsey took to twitter last week to let folks know that he wants to hire a few cryptocurrency engineers and a designer.

And to show people how to do open source the right way.

Contribute to bitcoin and get paid? Sounds nice.

The reason this got so much attention is that this message is coming from the CEO of Twitter and Square.

Another reason why the response is so positive is that Coinbase has taken a ton of flak in the past for building its business on the back of bitcoin, but doing seemingly little to help the project.

And it does seem like Jack and/or his PR folks have noticed this and are playing their position to their advantage.

I do that think that Square is trying to capture more of the crypto market and will eventually be one of the more competitive players.

Will these hirings have a substantial effect on the bitcoin ecosystem? Probably not.

Are these actions/tweets most likely there to collect brownie points and garner good press from the crypto community (especially the outspoken maximalists)? Probably.

Does this mean the Jack doesn’t actually care about bitcoin? I wouldn’t go this far, but consider the following.

Jack told us in a CNBC interview that he spends $10k on bitcoin every week.

Jack has a net worth of around ~$5.3 billion.

Jack buying $520,000 worth of bitcoin per year is roughly equivalent to a person worth $100,000 spending $10 a year buying bitcoin (to be precise, about $9.81 5.3 billion / 100k = 53,000 and 520,000/53,000 = $9.81)

Now, I don’t have a billion dollars. But I definitely have more then $10 worth of bitcoin. And I’m pretty sure so do you.

With that said, almost every expense sounds unreasonably low when compared to that of a billionaire.

What was my point? I don’t remember. Just imagine I wrote something insightful here about perspective and playing angles to your advantage.


Japan on margin crypto trading

The cabinet on Friday approved draft amendments to Japan's financial instruments and payment services laws, which would cap leverage in virtual currency margin trading at two to four times initial deposits. The new limits are in line with standards are similar to those in foreign exchange trading.

…The rules are to go into force in April 2020. Margin cryptocurrency exchange operators would need to be registered within 18 months of that date.

Source


Bitmain to deploy 200,000 miners

Bitmain is planning to deploy 200,000 units of its own mining equipment in China to take advantage of cheap hydroelectric power this summer.

The equipment is conservatively estimated to cost $80 million, but it may be more profitable right now for Bitmain to mine crypto itself than try to sell all this inventory.

Source

Good timing.

There are estimates that this could increase bitcoin’s hashrate to 70 quintillion hashes per second (EH/s), above the network’s all-time-high of around 60 EH/s.


Recommended Readings

Cycles: Hard Times Create Strong Men

The first essay in a four-part series named "Cycles" during which we are going to examine the mechanics of growth. The main focus of our journey will be the exploration of a generalized philosophical framework, rooted in observable reality.

You can check out the article here.


Market Sentiment

The TD is interesting

In the beginning of the month I mentioned that now is a good time to pay attention to the TD Sequential.

The end of March is approaching and for the monthly candle to close as a red 8, we need to finish the month with a price below the close of the previous red 4 (around 3,970).

The reason this is interesting, is because we’re on a green 7 on the weekly candles.

So on the weekly chart this indicating a bearish move could happen within the next 2-3 weeks.

And on the monthly chart this is indicating a bullish move could happen within the next 2 months.


Bitcoin (Trend Overview)

Keeping an eye on these macro-trend lines (added the yellow trend line).


Bitcoin (Moving Averages)

Nothing particularly exciting here. Bitcoin is still coasting along the 10 EMA.


Bitcoin (Monthly Support/Resistance Levels)


Bitcoin (Weekly Support/Resistance Levels)


Bitcoin (2h Volume)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of March 24, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 29%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 1% chance.


The end

What do you folks think?

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

-Dmitriy

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