Weekly Bulletin (Mar 17, 2019)

CoinSheet #248

Have patience! In time, even grass becomes milk.

— Chaudhary Charan Singh (1902-1987)


Weekly Bulletin

Hello folks,

Missed you guys last week, but don’t worry, you didn’t miss anything.

I kinda want to jump into a look at the market so here are some quick snippets of events/news I thought were interesting.

ETH isn’t a security

SEC Chairman Clayton confirmed Commission staff analysis that found Ethereum (and cryptos like it) are not securities.

Like, we already knew this. But that didn’t stop shit coins from pamping.

BIS statement on crypto stuff

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of international banking authorities, has warned that the growth of cryptocurrencies poses a number of risks to banks and global financial stability.

You can read their letter here.

Tether

Tether has updated the terms on its website, saying that its dollar-pegged USDT stablecoin may not be backed 100 percent by fiat reserves.

My stance on this remains the same. Stable coins are stupid, Tether is boring and I don’t care about it.

Cosmos

Cosmos is a decentralized network of independent parallel blockchains, each powered by classical BFT consensus algorithms like Tendermint.

The first blockchain in the Cosmos Network is the Cosmos Hub, whose native token is the Atom. Cosmos is a permissionless network, meaning that anybody can build a blockchain on it.

TL;DR - It’s a new meme coin that wants to be Ethereum soo bad.

If you actually want to read more about what it is, you can read this article.

If you’re looking for reasons to stay away, look below.


Market Sentiment

Did we bottom yet?

The public sentiment seems to be changing. Lots of industry folks are beginning to think we've already bottomed.

Maybe. Maybe we have. But I want to know why. And if you can’t make an effort and tell me why, I’m probably not going to listen to you.

So why have we bottomed? Does it have to do with hash rate? Trading volumes? Number of UTXO's? NVT? Number of active addresses?

If someone is telling you that we’ve bottomed, or that we haven’t bottomed, best ask them why.

(*In my case, I’m mostly looking at momemtum, trend and volume.)


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

I’m still keeping an eye on this macro-trend line.

Also, in the second chart below, take a note at how shorts are increasing.

Bitcoin (Daily zoomed in)

Here I added some moving averages and BTCUSD shorts vs longs.

I’ve been asked what it would take for me to start thinking that we’re beginning to go bullish.

Pretty simple. I want to see the price cross the 200 SMA, and then I want to see a 50 SMA / 200 SMA crossover. This is one example of a scenario that would put me over the 50% threshold and I would say we’re in a bullish trend.


Bitcoin (Monthly Support/Resistance Levels)


Bitcoin (Weekly Support/Resistance Levels)


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of March 17, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 29%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 1% chance.


Recommended Readings

Schnorr Signatures & The Inevitability of Privacy in Bitcoin

A good read from Lucas Nuzzi on Schnorr signatures.

In this article, I provide a general overview of the multiple implementations of Schnorr signatures and their corresponding benefits. Then, I explore MuSig, a new multi-signature standard that serves as a building block for novel Bitcoin technologies like Taproot. Lastly, I describe how the fully realized version of Schnorr can break the heuristics used in blockchain analysis and, at the same time, help develop a strong fee market in Bitcoin’s main layer.

You can read the full article here.


The end

What do you folks think?

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

-Dmitriy

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