CoinSheet Audio (Feb 12, 2019)

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Substack is introducing a new audio tool and I thought I’d give it a try.

You know, do something different, let you all hear my voice.

Love it? Hate it?

Leave a comment down below and let me know what you think.


Note 1:

Bloomberg article (Source).
Forbes article (Source).


Note 2:


Note 3:

Chainalysis raises $30 million (Source).

Chainalysis raises $16 million back in April 2018 (Source).

Link to Reddit comment (Source).

Weekly Bulletin (Feb 10, 2019)

CoinSheet #242

Happiness comes through doors you didn't even know you left open.

— Unknown


Weekly Bulletin

Hello folks.

Last week wasn’t particularly exciting.

Lots of noise, not much signal (as per usual).

Sensationalized articles were in full swing.

We now know that Facebook is buying blockchain companies, Hamas is using bitcoin to fund terrorism, investors are losing money, and Brock Pierce is trying to rebuild Mt.Gox.

YouTube

Thank you folks for subscribing to my YouTube.

As I wrote previously, I’m planning on releasing some crypto-related + not crypto-related content that you folks might like.

I will put out the first video when we’re at 1,000 subscribers (only 300 away so go and subscribe).

Youtube: Click here, and then click subscribe


Happy Lunar New Year!

Thank you for the quick pamp (or was it the WallStreet bonus' ?!??).

Cya again next year.


BitTorrent ICO

Few folks have been asking me what I think about the TRON BitTorrent Token (BTT).

Probably because BTT was up something like 600% from its launch (this was as of Feb 5).

Folks also brought it up in the Telegram chat.

I’ll write here what I wrote in chat:

Everything is good and well until you get dumped on.

Justin Sun has worked out a great formula for pumping shitcoins and I'm generally skeptical of any motive he might have that isn't stacking cash.

Tron doesn't "accidently" have the worlds largest crypto treasury.

I think this will soon be more evident as we start seeing supply inflation.

Stay away from these “high profile” ICO’s

There are many “projects” that are supposed to launch this year.

You’re going to see headlines like:

You’ve got to realize that these “fund managers” and folks who’ve invested in these ICO’s are all looking for ways to get rid of this trash.

Whether to dump on hopeful retailers in a Justin Sun style marketing + listing blitz, or dump on another group that’s even dumber then they are on some OTC market.

Stay away, or…

…Or don’t stay away, and be part of this wonderful evolution.


Hacker who stole $5 million by SIM swapping gets 10 years in prison

A college student who stole more than $5 million in cryptocurrency by hijacking the phone numbers of around 40 victims pleaded guilty and accepted a plea deal of 10 years in prison

This is only interesting because it appears this is the first person to be sentenced for this specific crime.

Source


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

The bounce of the 200-Week SMA is notable.

Besides that, the daily isn’t particularly interesting.

The consensus among traders seems be that the 3k support will be broken.

When will it be broken? No one knows.

Bitcoin could rally to 4.5k, and then proceed to fall below 3k. Or it could fall to/below 3k right now.

I’m leaning more bearish since it seems the 50 SMA resistance held up (orange line).


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~3,630
Pivot point: ~3,520
Support 1: ~3,320
Support 2: ~3,230


Bitcoin (4h Volume)

Seeing bearish divergence on the OBV (volume isn’t confirming bullish price movement).

Expecting downside.


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Feb 10, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 25%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 5% chance.


Recommended Readings

Why Monetary Maximalism could fall short of expectations

The most popular argument for why that should be the case is that it already happened once – with gold. 

There are two big assumptions baked into the grand narrative of monetary maximalism today. First, that the world will gravitate towards the soundest monetary-policy coin. And second, that gold-analogies are apt in describing Bitcoin. 

We would argue that this is reasoning by analogy, and that the analogy is not self-evident even for many people inside crypto, let alone outside. We should steer clear of suggesting that we can use logic to determine how this will all play out. 

You can read the full essay here.


Regulation: A View from Inside the Machine

Below is a link to remarks from SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce on her speech about Protecting the Public While Fostering Innovation and Entrepreneurship.

Blockchain-based networks offer a new way of coordinating human action that does not fit as neatly within our securities framework. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the white paper that introduced bitcoin to the world, envisioned a “network [that] is robust in its unstructured simplicity.” Uncoordinated nodes work together toward a common end “with little coordination.”[8] Other blockchain projects likewise seek to build networks that operate organically, without a central organizer. Some projects seek to facilitate various forms of authentication to replace traditional recordkeeping transactions or to allow individuals to interact without using trusted intermediaries. The objective of many of these blockchain projects is to build networks that run on diffuse contributions, rather than to create centralized entities that run networks. In the end, there may not be anyone steering the ship.

Source


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

Weekly Bulletin (Feb 3, 2019)

CoinSheet #241

The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself.

Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)


Weekly Bulletin

Cboe resubmits the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal

I mentioned last week how the Cboe VanEck/SolidX ETF proposal has been “strategically” withdrawn.

This week the ETF has been resubmitted.

Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, the SEC will have up to 240 days to decide whether to approve or reject the proposal.

You can look at the proposal here.

My general thoughts on this haven’t changed.

The meme that a Bitcoin ETF will help bring fresh money into the space is real. And when I say it’s real I mean that it will have a bullish effect on price.

With that said, a bitcoin ETF is largely irrelevant to bitcoin becoming “internet gold” and a “money.”

Side note: This not so subtle distinction in perspectives between folks who focus on bitcoin’s price (mostly traders) and folks who focus on bitcoin as a money/gold (bitcoin monetary maximalists?) causes unnecessary bickering and friction.

Try to avoid arguing with people who don’t disagree with you.

Image result for arguing different points

Fidelity targeting March launch for Bitcoin custody

Fidelity which administers over 7.2 trillion in clients assets is targeting a March launch date for its Bitcoin custody service.

At least that’s according to this Bloomberg article.


Two more companies receive a BitLicense

The first company is Robinhood.

The other is LibertyX, which "is the first DFS virtual currency licensee to allow customers to use debit cards to purchase Bitcoin from traditional ATMs.”

Source


Wyoming Senate passes bill to treat crypto as money

This isn’t a law yet.

The Wyoming Senate passed the bill, but the House hasn't voted and it isn't a law yet.

Nonetheless, this is a notable mention.

Source

I think it’s worth checking out the proposed bill (in the source above) and reading the language and definitions used.

i.e.,

"Virtual currency" means a digital asset that is:

(A)  Used as a medium of exchange, unit of account or store of value; and

(B)  Not recognized as legal tender by the United States government.


QuadrigaCX debacle

I don’t want to get into this.

TL;DR - A CEO of a Canadian exchange dies (allegedly?) with the private keys to $145M of cryptocurrency. And now those funds are lost (or are they?).

Lots of drama around this, lots of folks lost money, some folks are claiming money is being moved out (source), etc…

The key takeaway here is…

Your keys, your coins. Not your keys, not your coins.

Please take take of your keys. And teach your loved ones how to take care of your keys.

So this can be you when you give your bitcoin private keys to your child in 20 years.


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~3,770
Pivot point: ~3,535
Support 1: ~3,420
Support 2: ~3,300


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Feb 3, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 25%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 5% chance.


Recommended Readings

A Conflict of Crypto Visions

Conflicts raging within “crypto” are endless. Heated debates take place on a wide spectrum of issues, with little attempt to devise compromises acceptable to both sides. Interestingly, it is the same people who consistently position themselves on opposite sides of these issues. From monetary maximalism and wealth distribution to governance and consensus algorithms, the issues vary tremendously while the formed groups of opposition remain the same. Naturally, this creates an unproductive habit of each side blindly talking past the other.

But you can read the article here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

Weekly Bulletin (Jan 27, 2019)

CoinSheet #240

Do not believe that it is very much of an advance to do the unnecessary three times as fast.

Peter Drucker


Weekly Bulletin

Hello folks!

The delay in today’s newsletter is brought to you by the 1.5Mbps internet connection I have over here in Mississippi.

I should be getting back to NYC in about a week or so (and I’ll be shipping the t-shirts you folks keep harassing me for).

YouTube

Also, If you’re interested in whatever it is I’m doing, subscribe to this YouTube page.

I’m planning on releasing some crypto-related videos that you folks might like.

Youtube: Click here, and then click subscribe

(It costs you nothing, but will motivate me to produce more content for ya’ll)

And now moving on to the crypo happenings of last week…

Bitcoin ETF filing has been withdrawn

As of January 22nd, the Cboe VanEck SolidX ETF proposal has been withdrawn (Source).

In a CNBC interview, VanEck's founder and CEO Jan van Eck said the following about pulling the proposal:

"Techncially, the SEC is affected by the shutdown. So, we were engaged in discussion with the SEC about the Bitcoin-related issues—custody, market manipulation, prices—and that had to stop, and so instead of trying to slip through or something, we just had the application pulled, and we will re-file and re-engage in the discussions when the SEC gets going again."

Brb, checking my notes for prepared canned responses.

>ETF Approved: MOON! LAMBO! MOON!

>ETF NOT Approved: ETFs aren’t even important? Lord Antonopoulos said ETF’s are bad so we don’t even need an ETF.

(Lord Antonopoulos pictured above)

What we can deduce from this withdrawal and Jan van Eck’s statement is that they expected a rejection.

We can also deduce that the SEC has not made its decision before the shutdown started.

So it looks like the government shutdown gave VanEck a perfect excuse to save face and voluntarily delay its ETF launch.


In Bakkt news…

There was this tweet that had some traction:

But as a nice twitter person pointed out:

So nothing has changed.

Bakkt is still pending full regulatory approval.


Q4 2018 XRP Markets Report

It’s that time of year again when we take a look at how much XRP was sold this quarter (source).

Let’s take a look.

It looks like Ripple sold $129.03 million worth of XRP in Q4 2018.

That brings the total to $535.56 million for the full 2018 year.

I’ve said it time and time again, the actual business plan for Ripple is to dump their shitty bags on plebs.

I understand that people will orchestrate the most spectacular displays of mental gymnastics in order to defend their “investment.”

But what does it say about us when a company is transparent in their pilfering, and we simply look the other way (this is the 9th quarterly report released by Ripple).

I have noticed more folks talking about this (as compared to a year ago), so I guess things are moving in the right direction, at their own pace.


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

So this is interesting.

In hindsight it’s easy to say that no one expected a Q1 Bitcoin ETF, and that this event was priced in.

This lack of price action makes me think that we’ve actually seen the worst of capitulation and we’re beginning to enter a year’ish-long period of accumulation.


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~3,875
Resistance 1: ~3,700
Pivot point: ~3,590
Support 1: ~3,420
Support 2: ~3,310


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Jan 27, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70% (down from 80%).
We've already bottomed = about 25% (up from 15%).
Retest 900-1,200 = About 5% chance.


Recommended Readings

Evaluating Bitcoin forks with network data

New research from coinmetrics.

In this post, we introduced several new measures to determine how active, vibrant, and dispersed new forks are: in particular the notions of uptake, active supply, and addresses with a balance. Together, these metrics give observers a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the vibrancy or morbidity of a given fork of Bitcoin. While no metric is individually sufficient to analyze the uptake and success of a fork, taken together, a pattern of evidence can be built. The notion of uptake in particular challenges market cap, suggesting that large fractions of the troubled metric are entirely illusory. We believe that these metrics can be powerful tools for entities which require hard-to-forge quantitative measures of enthusiasm and usage for major forks.

You can read it here.

Grin and the Mythical Fair Launch

Few folks have asked about Grin. I’m not super interested in Grin.

But you can read about it here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

Weekly Bulletin (Jan 20, 2019)

CoinSheet #239

He who lowers himself to the level of others realizes only then how tall he once stood.

— Jeck


Weekly Bulletin

US Government shutdown effecting SEC Bakkt + ETF outcome?

With the U.S. government undergoing its longest partial shutdown in history, the Bakkt launch and ETF decision are in a state of limbo.

During this shutdown the SEC and CFTC have not been able to green-light any new financial products.

Nothing else to do but wait. And expect some bearish price action.

China’s new blockchain service regulations

On January 10th the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) published a bunch of new blockchain service regulations.

The only thing I want you to get out of this is that there is real activity going on in the realm of regulation in China (as opposed to China FUD doom articles you may see from time to time).

I’m not saying these regulations are good/bad, I just want to get the point across at how mundane and uneventful this work typically is.

The other point worth worth mentioning is that this type of regulation gives credibility to whatever it is trying to regulate.

So, with these new regulations entities operating in China that provide blockchain-based information services will have to register their real names and national identification card numbers.

What a surprise! Who could have expected that this is what China would do!

You can read the regulations here (you can translate it into English).

Ethereum upgrade is delayed

On January 15th blockchain security firm ChainSecurity announced that it had discovered a critical bug in Ethereum's code changes for the Constantinople upgrade.

You can read more about this here.

Oh yeah, this caused ETH prices to fall like 10%.


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

Expecting more bearish price action if we get news next week that the Bakky launch is delayed.


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~4,340
Resistance 1: ~3,925
Pivot point: ~3,700
Support 1: ~3,300
Support 2: ~3,070


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Jan 13, 2019 my confidence level for a bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 is about 80%.

I think there is about a 15% chance that we've already bottomed.

And a 5% chance we'll retest 900-1,200.


Recommended Readings

Digesting ‘Quantification of energy and carbon costs for mining cryptocurrencies’

Nic summarizes a Nature journal study about the energy costs of mining cryptocurrencies.

You can read it here.

Whither the Price of Bitcoin?

What are the long-run prospects of Bitcoin as an investment? The bullish case is that Bitcoin will appreciate indefinitely due to its capped supply and an ever-growing demand. The bearish case is that Bitcoin's price will fall to zero, as it's an intrinsically worthless asset. We think the future price path is more likely to remain bounded between these two extremes. 

You can read the article here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

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