Back from hiatus

CoinSheet #259

Repetitive complaining will attract things for you to complain about. Repeated gratitude will attract things for you to be thankful about.

— Unknown

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I’m not dead

I had to take a short hiatus because of mostly personal stuff.

In contrast to William James and his radical empiricism (no set of experience has authority superior to any other set of experiences), I like to disparage my inconveniences as difficulties that come along with privilege.

So I’d rather express my gratitude and thanks for what I have, than bitch and moan about a pebble in my shoe.

With that said, CoinSheet will be returning to its regular (regularly late) weekly scheduled programming.

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Market Sentiment

Bitcoin

I last left you with this.

And below is an updated view.

We saw:

1. Bitcoin price hit the 61.8% fib resistance (red level in the photo above)

2. Dropped on the weekly TD9 to the ~7,500 support level

3. Rally pump, and exhaust itself at the 32.8% resistance level (~13,500)

4. Dump 30% and find hard support at the previous 61.8% fib resistance

5. And is now currently sitting on the 50% fib resistance

I haven’t been following Twitter much lately, so I’m not entirely sure what the sentiment is, but I did share this tweet about a week ago.

Dmitriy @Dmitriysz

I hope people realize that we're never going to see another 80%+ BTC correction

I really don’t think we’re going to see another massive 80%+ bitcoin downside correction.

The reactions to this tweet lead me to think that people think 80%+ corrections are normal or that people don’t aren’t accurately estimating the market maturity of bitcoin.

Here’s an exchange with Vortex (hardcore bitcoiner, cool dude) where we disagree.

Vortex @theonevortex

@Dmitriysz 80% corrections are healthy after going up 1000s of percent.

Vortex @theonevortex

"This time it's different". Remember #bitcoin's market cycles are priced around its halving. We'll still be having huge pull backs all the way up to the 6 digits. If you think we're not going to correct from $100k to $30k I got a bridge to sell you. https://t.co/rWv022YQoS

Vortex @theonevortex

As people have correctly stated in this thread $100k might not be the top, the price in the OP was simply an example. If the price went from $250k to $40k, the point would still stand.

Dmitriy @Dmitriysz

@theonevortex Referencing the 250k number in the tweet, BTC marketcap would be ~4.5 trillion, about half the value of the present day gold supply. An 80% correction would be a disaster and really put a dent in the whole "store of value" meme.

Dmitriy @Dmitriysz

@theonevortex So I don't think you can, at the same time, buy into "80% corrections" and "store of value" (I'm assuming that when btc reached 250k it will be considered a store of value)

Vortex @theonevortex

@Dmitriysz You are clearly speaking from fear, not logic or price history.

Vortex @theonevortex

@Dmitriysz "An 80% correction would be a disaster " *looks back on the 4-5+ 80% drops in #bitcoin's history* Nope, wrong.

What do you folks think?

I’ll just leave you with this food for thought.

To the folks who keep saying that bitcoin is still a young baby, the euro is about 20 years old.

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Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

We’re about ~317 days away from the next halving event.

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The end

We’ll be taking a closer look at the markets on Monday.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

-Dmitriy