I want to do with you what spring does with the cherry trees.
— Pablo Neruda (1904-1973)
So, things are starting to get interesting.
Let’s jump into it.
Where we were
Few hours after I sent out the weekly bulletin, about 5k BTC longs were opened (bringing the total amount of longs open to ~38k).
This was bullish since we haven’t had this many longs open since last April.
This worked out pretty well since we had bullish crossovers on the 4h candles,
and a bullish 10 EMA / 50 SMA crossovers on the daily candles.
Where we’re going
Here’s what you should be paying attention to.
1. The macro trend
Take a look at the 2-hour chart below.
Looks bullish right? Looks like another bull flag might be forming. It might be. But lets zoom out.
Here’s that same chart but on the daily candles.
Doesn’t look so bullish anymore right?
Let’s slap on some trend lines & a fib extension.
We can clearly see we’re still within a bearish trend.
Let’s add some SMA’s.
We can see that we are nowhere near the 200-day SMA and the 50-week SMA.
TL;DR - The macro technical’s are still very much indicative of a strong bear trend.
2. Shorts vs longs
Let’s take a look at shorts vs longs.
We can see that longs fell about 32% and are trending down.
While shorts fell about 23% and are trending up.
Volume is slowing down and we’re beginning to see divergences on the OBV and ROC.
“DUDE just stop with that charts and tell me what you think is going to happen with the price”
There are 3 scenarios.
Scenario 1 (25% chance): We trend around this triangle for a bit longer.
Scenario 2 (75% chance): We break the triangle, rally to around 4.2k - 4.4k, get rejected by the macro bearish trend line, and begin our descent to our final bottom of this bear market, where we drop below 3k.
Scenario 3 (5% chance): We break the triangle, break the macro bear trend, and begin moon mission.
These are just my opinions.
What do you folks think?
If you have any questions, continue the discussion in our Telegram group.
That’s all for now.
See you later space Cowboy