Weekly Bulletin (Feb 3, 2019)

CoinSheet #241

The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself.

Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)


Weekly Bulletin

Cboe resubmits the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal

I mentioned last week how the Cboe VanEck/SolidX ETF proposal has been “strategically” withdrawn.

This week the ETF has been resubmitted.

Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, the SEC will have up to 240 days to decide whether to approve or reject the proposal.

You can look at the proposal here.

My general thoughts on this haven’t changed.

The meme that a Bitcoin ETF will help bring fresh money into the space is real. And when I say it’s real I mean that it will have a bullish effect on price.

With that said, a bitcoin ETF is largely irrelevant to bitcoin becoming “internet gold” and a “money.”

Side note: This not so subtle distinction in perspectives between folks who focus on bitcoin’s price (mostly traders) and folks who focus on bitcoin as a money/gold (bitcoin monetary maximalists?) causes unnecessary bickering and friction.

Try to avoid arguing with people who don’t disagree with you.

Image result for arguing different points

Fidelity targeting March launch for Bitcoin custody

Fidelity which administers over 7.2 trillion in clients assets is targeting a March launch date for its Bitcoin custody service.

At least that’s according to this Bloomberg article.


Two more companies receive a BitLicense

The first company is Robinhood.

The other is LibertyX, which "is the first DFS virtual currency licensee to allow customers to use debit cards to purchase Bitcoin from traditional ATMs.”

Source


Wyoming Senate passes bill to treat crypto as money

This isn’t a law yet.

The Wyoming Senate passed the bill, but the House hasn't voted and it isn't a law yet.

Nonetheless, this is a notable mention.

Source

I think it’s worth checking out the proposed bill (in the source above) and reading the language and definitions used.

i.e.,

"Virtual currency" means a digital asset that is:

(A)  Used as a medium of exchange, unit of account or store of value; and

(B)  Not recognized as legal tender by the United States government.


QuadrigaCX debacle

I don’t want to get into this.

TL;DR - A CEO of a Canadian exchange dies (allegedly?) with the private keys to $145M of cryptocurrency. And now those funds are lost (or are they?).

Lots of drama around this, lots of folks lost money, some folks are claiming money is being moved out (source), etc…

The key takeaway here is…

Your keys, your coins. Not your keys, not your coins.

Please take take of your keys. And teach your loved ones how to take care of your keys.

So this can be you when you give your bitcoin private keys to your child in 20 years.


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~3,770
Pivot point: ~3,535
Support 1: ~3,420
Support 2: ~3,300


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Feb 3, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 25%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 5% chance.


Recommended Readings

A Conflict of Crypto Visions

Conflicts raging within “crypto” are endless. Heated debates take place on a wide spectrum of issues, with little attempt to devise compromises acceptable to both sides. Interestingly, it is the same people who consistently position themselves on opposite sides of these issues. From monetary maximalism and wealth distribution to governance and consensus algorithms, the issues vary tremendously while the formed groups of opposition remain the same. Naturally, this creates an unproductive habit of each side blindly talking past the other.

But you can read the article here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy