Weekly Bulletin (Jan 13, 2019)

CoinSheet #238

Whether you think that you can, or that you can't, you are usually right.

— Henry Ford (1863-1947)


Weekly Bulletin

Kunyi, myself, and another person are somewhere in the middle of Texas, in a small cabin, with about half-a-bar of service.

We’re on an indefinite road trip across the country, spending 4+ hours in a car each day.

Apologies for any late delays in emails/responses. We’ll get acclimated quite soon and start writing more.

If you’re interested in what we’re doing, we’ll send something out next week.

ETC gets 51% attacked

Ethereum classic has decent daily volume, and has a relatively low cost to perform an attack.

The attack was inevitable.

(You can check approximately how much it costs to 51% attack a coin here)

(Here’s a link to the Coinbase article about Ethereum Classic)

Coinbase says they have identified a total of 15 reorganizations, 12 of which contained double spends, totaling 219,500 ETC (~$1.1M).

They also wrote that no Coinbase accounts have been impacted by the attack (Coinbase identified the double spend attacks, but they had not been the target so all customer funds are unaffected).

You might be thinking, how can Ethereum Classic be worth anything at this time? Post attack Ethereum Classic has seen very little price movement. What’s up with that?

TL;DR - Shitcoins gonna be shitcoins


Misc news from last week

  • Brave surpasses 5.5 million monthly active users

  • Thailand’s SEC approves four new crypto exchanges

  • Bitwise Asset Management files with SEC for new Bitcoin ETF

Dj Khaled And Another One GIF

Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

I'm still expecting price to range (between S2 and R2, see support levels below) until we learn more about what's going on with the Bakkt futures launch.


Bitcoin (4h Volume)

Seeing some bullish divergence on the CMF and OBV.


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~4,380
Resistance 1: ~4,200
Pivot point: ~3,920
Support 1: ~3,750
Support 2: ~3,450

(I’ll post the new weekly levels for next week in the Telegram chat tomorrow)


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Jan 13, 2019 my confidence level for a bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 is about 80%.

I think there is about a 15% chance that we've already bottomed.

And a 5% chance we'll retest 900-1,200.


Recommended Readings

The real Bitcoin FUD

Bitcoiners are asking critical questions about Bitcoin’s security model. And along those lines, the best way to engage in fud with Bitcoiners is to focus on how the changing landscape of Bitcoin will shape its incentive structures and security model in the future. After all, the best new fud will involve how bitcoin’s network adapts to its inevitable monetization. Although it may seem like Bitcoiners are a monolith of sound money propaganda, there is a lot you can learn through this community. In the end, serious Bitcoiners are willing to discuss their concerns and the importance of those concerns in pushing Bitcoin to the next level; you’d just have to look away on purpose not to see that.

Check it out the full article here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy