Weekly Bulletin (Jan 20, 2019)

CoinSheet #239

He who lowers himself to the level of others realizes only then how tall he once stood.

— Jeck


Weekly Bulletin

US Government shutdown effecting SEC Bakkt + ETF outcome?

With the U.S. government undergoing its longest partial shutdown in history, the Bakkt launch and ETF decision are in a state of limbo.

During this shutdown the SEC and CFTC have not been able to green-light any new financial products.

Nothing else to do but wait. And expect some bearish price action.

China’s new blockchain service regulations

On January 10th the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) published a bunch of new blockchain service regulations.

The only thing I want you to get out of this is that there is real activity going on in the realm of regulation in China (as opposed to China FUD doom articles you may see from time to time).

I’m not saying these regulations are good/bad, I just want to get the point across at how mundane and uneventful this work typically is.

The other point worth worth mentioning is that this type of regulation gives credibility to whatever it is trying to regulate.

So, with these new regulations entities operating in China that provide blockchain-based information services will have to register their real names and national identification card numbers.

What a surprise! Who could have expected that this is what China would do!

You can read the regulations here (you can translate it into English).

Ethereum upgrade is delayed

On January 15th blockchain security firm ChainSecurity announced that it had discovered a critical bug in Ethereum's code changes for the Constantinople upgrade.

You can read more about this here.

Oh yeah, this caused ETH prices to fall like 10%.


Market Sentiment

Technicals


Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

Expecting more bearish price action if we get news next week that the Bakky launch is delayed.


Bitcoin (4h Volume)


Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~4,340
Resistance 1: ~3,925
Pivot point: ~3,700
Support 1: ~3,300
Support 2: ~3,070


Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

  • Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)

  • Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)

  • Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Jan 13, 2019 my confidence level for a bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 is about 80%.

I think there is about a 15% chance that we've already bottomed.

And a 5% chance we'll retest 900-1,200.


Recommended Readings

Digesting ‘Quantification of energy and carbon costs for mining cryptocurrencies’

Nic summarizes a Nature journal study about the energy costs of mining cryptocurrencies.

You can read it here.

Whither the Price of Bitcoin?

What are the long-run prospects of Bitcoin as an investment? The bullish case is that Bitcoin will appreciate indefinitely due to its capped supply and an ever-growing demand. The bearish case is that Bitcoin's price will fall to zero, as it's an intrinsically worthless asset. We think the future price path is more likely to remain bounded between these two extremes. 

You can read the article here.


The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That’s all for now.

See you later space Cowboy